Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
